5 Years ago today TD12 strengthened into Katrina. What a crazy year that was! For now, Daniele has been very healthy looking out in the mid Atlantic, she kind of went through a restructuring cycle the last several hours, but still looks on track to make it to Major status by tomorrow. On her heals is another system that could become a Tropical Depression today and a storm in the next day or so. His name would be Earle.

Enjoy the cooler weather! After a summer of such heat, it is nice, even if cloudy, to get a break and give AC’s a break too!

All for now!

Unsettled conditions will last into Thursday, and then again this weekend. Temps will stay hot with highs around 90 north and in the mid 90s south.

A cooler and dry Monday does look possible.

The remnants of TD5 were not really able to regenerate. The tropics have a few other flare ups, but not much more at this time.

All for now!

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

The week will remain warm to hot with highs upper 80s to low 90s area wide, except Wednesday with the rain. Rain chances return by Friday and highs come down to 85 to 90 degrees by then.

The tropics look interesting as the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 return to the Gulf and are already coming to life. The Hurricane center already has it at a medium risk of developing into a cyclone and it does look like it will. How strong before it poses the threat to the Louisiana coast is hard to say. The Gulf waters are around 90 degrees so it is pulling from a majorly Hot and humid area which makes it very explosive in possibilities

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The tropics, despite being busier, have failed to produce another storm since Colin. Colin is a bit interesting as it COULD re-emerge into the Gulf and could re-strengthen! We will see. Nothing else is really out there at this time.

Not much else to talk about! After a week of severe storms and heavy localized rains, this is much calmer.

Jimmy

There are some showers and storms possible starting Thursday.

The Tropics are very active, and fortunate that no system has gotten too strong. There is a disturbance off of Florida, Tropical Depression Colin almost on top of Bermuda and could restrengthen, and then a strong wave half way between Africa and the Caribbean that may become a tropical depression in the next few days.

What does the winter look like. According to Accu weather it should be close to normal. Nothing like last year!

All for now!

Heat will return next week with highs in the 90 to 95 degree level. After the rains and storms pass through the next 24 to 36 hours the next chance at some thunderstorms will be Tuesday Wednesday, and Thursday but this will be the typical summer time risk of storms and nothing too organized.

The tropics have a couple areas of interest and they could develop. Next system would be names Colin.

I am hoping to be more active on posting as work and life get in better alignment!

All for now!

A Front will approach and cross the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. I will say though, that this will not limit the heat as much as you would hope! There is a risk of strong and severe storms as the front moves through. We will *COOL* to the 90 to 95 degree range by Monday. Not really cool, but we will also see less humidity. Next week temps will be in the 90 to 95. After Sunday’s storms, another set of storms will be Wednesday.

Bonnie is pretty much fizzled out. The system has just collapsed. This is nothing compared to the serious rainfall up in Chicago with 4 to 6 inches of rain. That was after Wisconsin was slammed yesterday with 4 to 7 inches of rain.

Also of note, a tornado warning was issued for New York City yesterday with a storm that moved through. The Northeast Quadrant caught some great videos and posted them as well as was on YouTube and was interviewed on the Weather Channel this morning. Way to go!

All for now!

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Temps Monday through Wednesday next week will just be in the upper 80s north while central and southern areas still remain within a few degree of 95. After Sunday the next chance of rain will be next Thursday. I do wonder if the remnants and moisture will fuel some more chances of rain next week. We will see.

Bonnie is moving rapidly to the NW and will strike Floriday later today. Winds remain near 40 mph. Bonnie may become a depression over FL and then restrebgthen in the Gulf before maybe hitting Louisiana as a strong tropical storm, or, at most, a minimal hurricane.

We will see! Stay cool!

Looks like the wave near the Dominican Republic could become Bonnie and pose a threat to Florida, but this morning it is looking less impressive on Satellite but more impressive on models. Recon and NOAA flights scheduled for today.

All for now.